Posts Tagged ‘Janata’

Indian Parliamentary Elections, 2009 (A Forecast): Congress Party or Bharatiya Janata Party?

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010

preference based on meta-analysis of various surveys and analysis of issues and campaigns of various political parties, the expected average number of seats in Parliament should any political party is secure, as follows. Support for 272 parliamentary seats in Lok Sabha (Indian Parliament) represents the majority.

Congress Party and its political allies, including Dravida Munnetra Kazagham, the National Congress Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Samajwadi Party and the Trinamool Congress: 225 (limitation: because these parties are businesses, they are more likely to be fewer seats than waiting back).

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its political allies, including Akali Dal, stuns Gana Parishad (AGP), the Janata Dal (U) and Shiv Sena: 190 (limitation: because these parties are in power are likely to benefit Anti-occupation benefits, but sweet).

The Communists (35) will never support the BJP and can not help having the Congress Party. This would be the Congress and its allies 260 seats in Parliament. And these 260 seats will be in strong opposition to a BJP-led government. There is another wrinkle to this arithmetic. Trinamool Congress and Communist parties are like snakes and mongooses, as they compete for the same political space in West Bengal. It is not clear that the Trinamool Congress to support the Congress, if Congress is to support the communists. But we assume that the most optimistic scenario for the government of the Congress Party.

All India Anna DMK (ADMK) and its allies [28], Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) [32] and Telugu Desam (TDP) and its allies [15] probably about 77 rear seats up. For the various local political constraints (they are all competing in the same political space in their respective countries like Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh), these three parties never supported the government’s Congress Party and they may have no choice but to support BJP. It has about 265 seats in Parliament in favor of a BJP-led government and firm against a government led by Congress.

It thus supports Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which should earn about 8 seats in Parliament, came, and much less political parties.

Congress Party and its allies: the support of 260 MPs and opposed by 265 members of Parliament

BJP and its allies: the support of 265 MPs and opposed by 260 members of Parliament

Given the number and positioning of different political parties, the chances of a BJP-led government seem to be slightly higher. But whoever forms the government, the coalition is likely to be vulnerable and fragile in the office last longer than a few years.